Rob Wittman

Virginia voters head to the polls Nov. 3 to decide three constitutional amendments — on reproductive rights, marriage equality, and automatic restoration of voting rights for felons after sentence completion — alongside federal races. Sen. Mark Warner seeks a fourth term against Bert Mizusawa, while competitive U.S. House contests play out in the 1st (Wittman vs. Taylor), 4th (McClellan vs. Murray and Bell), and 5th (McGuire vs. Perriello and Harvey) districts. Richmond and Chesterfield voters will also weigh a 1% sales tax increase to fund school construction, alongside 45 other Virginia localities, plus local School Board and Board of Supervisors races. Early voting runs through Oct. 31.

Virginia's 1st and 5th congressional districts have drawn roughly $1.1 million in combined trading on Kalshi and Polymarket, the most activity among the state's House races, as both could factor into control of Congress. In the 5th District, Republican Rep. John McGuire is favored over Democrat Tom Perriello. In the 1st District, Democrat Shannon Taylor is favored to flip the seat held by Republican Rep. Rob Wittman. A third race, the 2nd District rematch between Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans and Democrat Elaine Luria, has also seen heavy betting, with markets strongly favoring Luria.

More broadly, prediction markets favor Democrats to retake the House and give them an edge in the Senate, with over $165 million traded on House control and $99 million on the Senate across both platforms.

Three competitive Virginia congressional races are drawing national attention as potential bellwethers for House control. In the 1st District, Republican Rep. Rob Wittman faces Democrat Shannon Taylor in a toss-up contest; analysts say a Taylor win would signal strong odds of a Democratic House takeover nationally. The 2nd District race between Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans and Democrat Elaine Luria leans Democratic, while the 5th District matchup between Republican Rep. John McGuire and Democrat Tom Perriello leans Republican. Political scientists note that if Republicans sweep all three seats, they are likely to retain the House. Early voting runs through Oct. 31, with Election Day set for Nov. 3.

In Virginia's 1st Congressional District, Democratic prosecutor Shannon Taylor is challenging longtime Republican Rep. Rob Wittman with an anti-corruption message, accusing him of enriching himself through stock trades in companies he helps regulate. Wittman denies wrongdoing, says his portfolio is managed by outside advisers and reflects inheritances, has backed legislation limiting stock trading, and calls Taylor "a liar." The district, unrepresented by a Democrat since the 1970s, backed Trump by about 5 points in 2024 but went for Gov. Abigail Spanberger by nearly 3 points in 2025, making it a top Democratic flip target. Wittman has outraised Taylor roughly two-to-one, though outside groups have spent nearly $5 million attacking him on her behalf. Wittman, who has never won by fewer than 10 points, has deep local ties and Trump's endorsement, while Taylor has pledged to support a stock-trading ban, term limits, and a lobbying ban for former members of Congress.

The race reflects a broader anti-corruption theme emerging nationally this midterm cycle, with similar stock-trading and ethics attacks surfacing in North Carolina, New Jersey, and Virginia's neighboring 2nd District, where Rep. Jen Kiggans faces Democrat Elaine Luria. Polling shows voters are more likely to associate corruption with Republicans, giving Democrats an opening to tie incumbents to affordability frustrations and Trump-era controversies.

Controversy is growing over a series of federally funded advertisements praising President Trump, which critics say amount to taxpayer-financed self-promotion. The Associated Press reported the three ads have cost nearly $1.5 million, with the newest spot closely resembling a 2024 Trump campaign ad. The Wall Street Journal reported the Department of Homeland Security helped finance the spots.

Virginia Democrats have been especially vocal. Sen. Tim Kaine called the ads illegal and said they reflect Trump's sagging popularity amid rising costs tied to tariffs and his handling of conflict with Iran. Rep. Eugene Vindman said Trump is trying to change the subject ahead of the midterms, while former Rep. Tom Perriello, a congressional candidate, criticized Republican rival John McGuire for staying silent. Several Virginia Republicans facing competitive House races did not respond to requests for comment.

The White House defended the ads as public service announcements reminding Americans to "love their country," insisting they are not campaign material since Trump is not on any ballot.

Early voting opened Sept. 18 in Virginia ahead of the Nov. 3 election, with voting continuing through Oct. 31 and a voter registration deadline of Oct. 23. Voters statewide will decide three constitutional amendments covering reproductive rights, marriage equality (protecting gay and interracial marriage), and automatic restoration of voting rights for felons who complete their sentences.

Congressional races include Democratic Sen. Mark Warner seeking a fourth term against Republican Bert Mizusawa, plus contests in the 1st District (Rob Wittman vs. Shannon Taylor), 4th District (Jennifer McClellan vs. Robert Murray Jr. and Joan Bell), and 5th District (John McGuire vs. Tom Perriello and Cooke Harvey). Richmond and Chesterfield voters, along with 45 other localities, will also weigh a potential 1% sales tax increase dedicated to school construction, projected to raise roughly $47 million annually in Richmond and up to $70 million in Chesterfield. Local races include a Richmond School Board special election and a contested Chesterfield School Board seat.

Early voting has opened in Virginia ahead of the Nov. 3 general election, running through Oct. 31 with a voter registration deadline of Oct. 23. Voters statewide will decide three constitutional amendments covering reproductive rights, marriage equality (protecting gay and interracial marriage), and automatic restoration of voting rights for felons who complete their sentences.

Richmond-area voters will also weigh in on federal races: Sen. Mark Warner seeks a fourth term against Bert Mizusawa, while U.S. House contests include the 1st District (Rob Wittman vs. Shannon Taylor), 4th District (Jennifer McClellan vs. Robert Murray Jr. and Joan Bell), and 5th District (John McGuire vs. Tom Perriello and Cooke Harvey). Richmond and Chesterfield, along with 45 other Virginia localities, will vote on authorizing a local 1% sales tax for school construction, projected to raise roughly $47 million and $70 million annually, respectively. Richmond also holds a special School Board election between incumbent Anne Holton and Jackie McDonnough.

Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA) is casting his 2026 challenger, Henrico County Commonwealth's Attorney Shannon Taylor, as soft on crime, seeking to neutralize what could otherwise be a strength for the Democratic prosecutor in a Republican-leaning district. Wittman announced endorsements from 14 sheriffs across the district and released an ad accusing Taylor of releasing "the worst criminals" early and citing past plea deals and lenient drug sentencing decisions from her career. Taylor, a four-time elected prosecutor who also ran for Virginia attorney general in 2025, has campaigned on her law-and-order record, touting convictions of violent criminals and sex traffickers.

Taylor countered with her own ad citing endorsements from 13 sheriffs statewide, though only one has jurisdiction in the district, along with a claimed 90% homicide conviction rate and an 86% drop in murders under her leadership. Her campaign dismissed Wittman's attacks and pointed to his nearly two-decade tenure in Congress. Trump carried the district by under 5 points in 2024, while Wittman won by 13 against a weaker opponent, making the race a closely watched 2026 battleground contest.