Jen Kiggans

Virginia's 1st and 5th congressional districts have drawn roughly $1.1 million in combined trading on Kalshi and Polymarket, the most activity among the state's House races, as both could factor into control of Congress. In the 5th District, Republican Rep. John McGuire is favored over Democrat Tom Perriello. In the 1st District, Democrat Shannon Taylor is favored to flip the seat held by Republican Rep. Rob Wittman. A third race, the 2nd District rematch between Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans and Democrat Elaine Luria, has also seen heavy betting, with markets strongly favoring Luria.

More broadly, prediction markets favor Democrats to retake the House and give them an edge in the Senate, with over $165 million traded on House control and $99 million on the Senate across both platforms.

Three competitive Virginia congressional races are drawing national attention as potential bellwethers for House control. In the 1st District, Republican Rep. Rob Wittman faces Democrat Shannon Taylor in a toss-up contest; analysts say a Taylor win would signal strong odds of a Democratic House takeover nationally. The 2nd District race between Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans and Democrat Elaine Luria leans Democratic, while the 5th District matchup between Republican Rep. John McGuire and Democrat Tom Perriello leans Republican. Political scientists note that if Republicans sweep all three seats, they are likely to retain the House. Early voting runs through Oct. 31, with Election Day set for Nov. 3.

Controversy is growing over a series of federally funded advertisements praising President Trump, which critics say amount to taxpayer-financed self-promotion. The Associated Press reported the three ads have cost nearly $1.5 million, with the newest spot closely resembling a 2024 Trump campaign ad. The Wall Street Journal reported the Department of Homeland Security helped finance the spots.

Virginia Democrats have been especially vocal. Sen. Tim Kaine called the ads illegal and said they reflect Trump's sagging popularity amid rising costs tied to tariffs and his handling of conflict with Iran. Rep. Eugene Vindman said Trump is trying to change the subject ahead of the midterms, while former Rep. Tom Perriello, a congressional candidate, criticized Republican rival John McGuire for staying silent. Several Virginia Republicans facing competitive House races did not respond to requests for comment.

The White House defended the ads as public service announcements reminding Americans to "love their country," insisting they are not campaign material since Trump is not on any ballot.