Vanderbilt University

Early voting in several Middle Tennessee counties is running well above 2022 levels, with Davidson County seeing the sharpest jump and Wilson County also up significantly, according to election officials. Davidson County's administrator of elections said part of the surge reflects population growth rather than a pure turnout comparison, but data suggests a larger share of registered voters could cast ballots early than in past cycles. A Vanderbilt University political science professor noted the numbers may signal stronger Democratic enthusiasm this cycle, though he cautioned that polling could be underestimating either party's support. Early voting continues through Oct. 29, with Election Day set for Nov. 3.

Prediction markets including Kalshi, Polymarket and PredictIt have favored Democrats Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown over Republicans Vivek Ramaswamy and Jon Husted in Ohio's governor and Senate races, giving each Democrat roughly 60-72% implied odds, while polling averages show both races as closer toss-ups. A Vanderbilt University study of 2,170 political contracts from the 2024 campaign found markets favored eventual winners 86.4% of the time, though most of that accuracy came from lopsided, already-likely outcomes. For closer contracts priced near 50-50, markets picked correctly only about 55% of the time. The study found markets generally well-calibrated, with slight evidence longshots were overpriced, but cautioned the results don't guarantee similar accuracy for Ohio's 2026 races.

Iowa's 2026 midterm races are diverging sharply. In the open governor's race, Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn by wide margins across every poll since the summer primaries, including surveys from YouGov, Marist, Emerson, CNN/SSRS, Suffolk and the New York Times/Siena. The Senate race to replace retiring Republican Joni Ernst is far tighter, with Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson trading narrow leads across the same polls after two debates focused on tariffs, immigration and the Iran war. Analysts cite Sand's stronger name recognition from two statewide auditor wins and Hinson's incumbency advantage as representative to explain the split. Iowa last elected a Democratic senator in 2008 and a Democratic governor in 2006.

A new national free speech ranking from the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression found the average campus climate score is 61.36 out of 100 — a seven-year high, but still a D-. Of 261 schools ranked, 121 received an F and only 24 earned a C or better. The University of Chicago topped the list for the third time in seven years, followed by Claremont McKenna, Georgia Tech, Michigan Tech and Vanderbilt; New York University ranked last. In Minnesota, the University of Minnesota and Macalester College both flunked, with Macalester criticized for restrictive speech policies and intolerance of opposing views, while Carleton College earned a D- but was praised for improved political tolerance.

The University of Arkansas scored 56.6 amid controversies including the rescinded hiring of a law school dean over her support for transgender athletes and discipline against a professor over pro-Palestinian posters. Nationally, students report high self-censorship, most often on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, followed by Trump, Charlie Kirk's assassination, abortion, immigration and transgender rights. Some schools lost points for firing professors over posts about Kirk's death; Utah Valley University fell sharply after dropping a commencement speaker. The findings arrive as the Trump administration pressures universities over protests, funding and diversity programs.