University of Florida

Florida Republicans are increasingly anxious ahead of Tuesday's election, with GOP Rep. Byron Donalds facing Democrat David Jolly in the governor's race. Despite Donalds's large fundraising edge, early voting data shows Republicans leading Democrats in ballots cast by a much smaller margin than in past elections, even with a wider GOP registration advantage. Turnout is especially weak in Panhandle and rural North Florida counties Donalds lost in the primary. Democrats and independents are banking votes from less-habitual voters, while Black, Hispanic and younger voters are casting ballots at higher relative rates than Republicans in those groups, raising uncertainty about whether traditional Election Day GOP strength will hold.

Florida's attorney general race pits Republican James Uthmeier, a former chief of staff to Gov. Ron DeSantis seeking his first elected office, against Democrat José Javier Rodríguez, a Miami lawyer and former state senator. Uthmeier has faced scrutiny over the Hope Florida controversy, legal fights with institutions including the Catholic Church and The New York Times, and questions about campaign-connected contracts. Rodríguez, who lost a 2020 state Senate race amid an illegal "ghost candidate" scheme that led to criminal convictions, is campaigning as an anti-corruption reformer and has drawn a $5 million late infusion from the Democratic Attorney Generals Association. A win would make him the first Democrat elected attorney general in Florida since 2002.

Democrat Angie Nixon, who upset Alex Vindman in Florida's Senate primary by nearly 12 points, is now challenging Republican Senator Ashley Moody in a race most analysts consider a longshot for Democrats. Florida has 1.5 million more registered Republicans than Democrats, and polls show Moody leading, though margins vary. Nixon faces a severe funding gap, having raised under $1 million to Moody's more than $11 million as of late July, limiting her ability to counter attack ads tying her to the Democratic Socialists of America.

National Democrats have been slow to invest in the race, but Senators Chris Murphy and Bernie Sanders are campaigning with Nixon this week, with Sanders contributing $250,000. Nixon is running on universal health care, child care, and affordable housing, and is working to mobilize Black voters and women while courting GOP-leaning communities. She has embraced an unapologetically progressive, grassroots-driven campaign, drawing comparisons to gubernatorial nominee David Jolly's more moderate crossover strategy, with both races seen as tests of competing Democratic approaches ahead of 2028. Analysts say Trump's unpopularity and cost-of-living concerns give her an opening, but she would need exceptionally high Democratic turnout combined with Republican voters staying home to overcome the state's structural disadvantages.

Florida's two marquee 2026 statewide races present unusual racial pairings, and candidates are handling the dynamic very differently. In the Senate race, Democrat Angie Nixon, a progressive from Jacksonville, faces Republican Ashley Moody, the former state attorney general appointed to the seat Marco Rubio vacated. In the governor's race, Republican Byron Donalds, who could become Florida's first Black governor, is running against David Jolly, a former Republican turned Democrat with strong Black voter support.

Analysts say Donalds has mostly avoided Black-specific outreach and race-focused messaging, emphasizing the economy and school choice instead, reflecting a common strategy for Black conservative candidates wary of alienating their base. Despite recent efforts to court Black voters, polling shows Jolly holding a commanding lead among Black voters. Nixon, by contrast, has leaned into discussing race directly while also courting white working-class voters with economic messaging, trailing Moody in current polling but with strategists calling her a credible underdog capable of winning with strong turnout.

Donalds has continued to draw national attention on other issues, recently criticizing far-left Florida Democrats who have called to abolish ICE amid the broader immigration debate.

Miami Herald readers are pushing back on proposed Florida property tax cuts, warning of steep funding losses for public health systems. Jackson Health System in Miami-Dade County stands to lose roughly $64 million in annual tax funding, jeopardizing services such as emergency care, behavioral health, organ transplants, and labor and delivery, much of it provided regardless of a patient's insurance status or ability to pay. Broward Health could lose more than $100 million over three years, while Palm Beach County's Health Care District could lose about $66.5 million.

Letter writers argue that lawmakers and voters should demand a concrete replacement funding plan before enacting cuts that could force hospitals to scale back programs and staffing, disproportionately affecting residents with the fewest healthcare alternatives. The debate reflects a broader tension in Florida politics between delivering property tax relief to homeowners and preserving funding for public services, with public hospital systems across South Florida identified as among the most exposed to near-term budget shortfalls if cuts move forward without offsetting revenue measures.

Florida Republicans showed a marked shift in voting behavior ahead of this year's primary election compared to the last open governor's race in 2018. State Division of Elections data show about 422,000 Republicans voted by mail this cycle, down from over 621,000 in 2018, while in-person early voting jumped from roughly 300,000 to nearly 450,000. Democrats' habits changed less, roughly matching 2018 patterns for both mail and early in-person voting.

Analysts point to President Trump's repeated criticism of mail voting as a likely driver of the GOP shift, along with a 2021 Florida law requiring voters to request mail ballots each election cycle rather than every other cycle. Nearly 2 million Floridians had voted early or by mail as of Monday, with Republicans slightly outnumbering Democrats. The contested four-way GOP gubernatorial primary, featuring Byron Donalds, Jay Collins, Paul Renner, and James Fishback, is fueling Republican turnout, while Democrats face a less competitive race led by David Jolly. Experts say the net effect on overall turnout remains uncertain.