Hamline University

Early voting surged ahead of Tuesday's elections across multiple states. More than 1.7 million Ohioans voted early, topping the 2022 midterm record, with closely watched governor (Ramaswamy vs. Acton) and Senate (Husted vs. Brown) races on the ballot; Cuyahoga County's early in-person total alone exceeded its entire 2022 count, and officials say Ohio could break its record for most votes ever cast in a gubernatorial election. Minnesota saw a parallel surge in metro and rural counties. In Florida, nearly 40 percent of the electorate, about 5.4 million of 13.7 million registered voters, had already cast ballots by Monday, with Democrats turning out at higher rates relative to registration than Republicans. North Carolina also topped its 2022 pace, with 2.8 million early ballots cast, 35.7 percent turnout versus 29 percent four years earlier. In New York, Monroe County logged over 95,000 early ballots, about 40,000 more than its previous midterm high, with surrounding counties reporting similar gains. Analysts caution strong early turnout doesn't reliably predict final results or partisan advantage.

Polls in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and New York are open Tuesday for voters who haven't yet cast ballots; absentee ballots must be physically received by county election boards by the stated deadlines to count.

Minnesota voters went to the polls August 11 in Democratic primaries pitting moderate Rep. Angie Craig against progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for the open Senate seat left by retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Flanagan drew backing from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Ilhan Omar and Smith herself, while Craig secured establishment support from Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, Pete Buttigieg and Gwen Walz, and roughly doubled Flanagan's fundraising. The race centered on Craig's contested vote for the Laken Riley Act, which she has since disavowed, immigration enforcement after federal agents killed two protesters during "Operation Metro Surge," and clashing views on Israel and AIPAC funding. On the Republican side, Michele Tafoya leads a fundraising-heavy field including party-endorsed Adam Schwarze and Royce White, while Amy Klobuchar faces minimal opposition for governor against Republicans Mike Lindell (Trump-endorsed), Lisa Demuth and Kendall Qualls, as the GOP seeks its first statewide win since 2006.

Craig's departure also triggered a six-way Democratic primary for her open 2nd Congressional District seat. The results will help determine whether Democrats lean moderate or progressive heading into the midterms and test Republican hopes of ending their statewide losing streak. Prediction markets, which favored Flanagan and Craig-adjacent dynamics entering Election Day, are watching outcomes as an early signal for the broader 2026 fight over Congress and Minnesota's state government.