Marshall County, Iowa

President Trump canceled his planned Kansas rally for Sen. Roger Marshall (R), with the RNC citing Republicans' "strong position" in the state. Marshall downplayed the move, saying he's "doing so well in the polls" that Trump's time is better spent elsewhere. But recent surveys tell a different story: CNN/SSRS, The Washington Post/George Mason University, and Emerson College polls all show Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Marshall in a state Trump won by over 15 points in 2024. Rising fuel costs and Trump's declining approval rating in Kansas appear to be factors. Forecaster Decision Desk HQ now gives Marshall just a 58% reelection chance, down from 90% earlier in the cycle, and projects a narrow Democratic Senate majority overall.

Iowa Democrats are hoping the 2026 midterms mark a turning point after nearly a decade of Republican dominance in the statehouse and congressional delegation. Political scientists note Iowa has swung both ways in recent cycles, and Cook Political Report now rates the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts as leaning Democratic, with the 2nd District a toss-up. The governor's race between Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn also leans Democratic. Analysts cite frustration with GOP control of state and federal government, a large pool of independent voters, bipartisan messaging from candidates like Sand and Senate hopeful Josh Turek, and softer approval ratings for President Trump as factors fueling Democratic optimism ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

U.S. Senator Roger Marshall, the Kansas Republican facing Democrat Adam Hamilton in the Nov. 3 Senate election, is scheduled to speak at a Greater Topeka Chamber of Commerce legislative forum on Oct. 16 at the Great Overland Station, with tickets ranging from $70 to $95. The event comes about three weeks before Election Day.

A separate Oct. 20 appearance planned at Zarda Bar-B-Q in Lenexa, part of a Johnson County Republicans luncheon, was relocated after a leaked flyer — which warned attendees not to share the event on social media for "congressional security protocols" — became public. Zarda's leadership said staff were unaware a senator would be speaking and stressed the restaurant is non-partisan. Johnson County Republicans did not respond to comment requests.

Marshall has not held a public town hall since March of last year, citing safety concerns, drawing criticism including a petition delivery earlier this year demanding he hold statewide town halls. He and Hamilton debated at the Kansas State Fair on Sept. 12.

The U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture voted 11-10 on Aug. 6 to block H.R. 7567, known as "Farm Bill 2.0," from advancing to the full Senate floor. The bill includes bipartisan-backed provisions for rural broadband, soil and water conservation, year-round sale of E-15 ethanol fuel, and country-of-origin labeling for meat products — measures Kansas farm groups say would meaningfully benefit the state's agriculture sector, particularly corn growers.

The sticking point is SNAP: the bill sets a timeline for penalties on states with food-stamp error rates above 6%, a provision tied to earlier changes under President Trump's tax and spending law. Republicans on the committee offered states two-and-a-half years to comply; Democrats wanted three-and-a-half years, and all Democrats voted against advancing the bill. Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) called the Democratic position unreasonable, while Senate candidate Adam Hamilton criticized Marshall for leaving producers without certainty. Kansas Farmers Union's Nick Levendofsky hopes for a compromise. Lawmakers are expected to revisit the SNAP dispute in September.