Virginia’s 4th Congressional District House Race
Virginia’s 4th Congressional District, anchored around Richmond and the Tri-Cities area, heads to the polls on November 3, 2026 to elect its U.S. House representative. The seat has long leaned Democratic, making the general election a key test of whether that advantage holds. Candidates from both major parties are campaigning ahead of the fall contest.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House often comes down to a handful of competitive districts, and results in reliably partisan seats like VA-04 help establish turnout and sentiment baselines nationally. A lopsided outcome here could signal broader momentum for one party heading into other 2026 midterm contests. Local representation also directly affects federal priorities for Richmond-area constituents.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate general election to a binary question: which party’s nominee wins the seat. Traders are effectively weighing how much, if any, uncertainty remains in a district with an established partisan lean. Shifts in trading activity can reflect candidate news, fundraising signals, or broader shifts in national midterm sentiment well before votes are counted.
Related terms
Total Volume
$72.1k
Kalshi $9.9k · Polymarket $62.1k
Leading Market
Jennifer McClellan
Kalshi 97% · Polymarket 99%
Jennifer McClellan Volume
$33.3k
Kalshi $8.6k · Polymarket $24.8k
Jennifer McClellan 24h Change
-1.00%
Kalshi 0.00% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer McClellanDemocratic Party | 98.9¢ | 7.0% | , trade Jennifer McClellan on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Jennifer McClellan on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Robert MurrayRepublican Party | 2.8¢ | 7.0% | , trade Robert Murray on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Robert Murray Jr.Republican Party | — | — | — | 3.0¢ | 5% | , trade Robert Murray Jr. on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer McClellanDemocratic Party | $33,347.85 | ||
| Robert MurrayRepublican Party | $1,357.56 | No market | |
| Robert Murray Jr.Republican Party | $37,350.92 | No market |