The Philadelphia Inquirer

A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll of registered Pennsylvania voters shows incumbent Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro leading Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity 58% to 38%, with less than six weeks until Election Day. That margin has widened from an August poll by the same organizations, which had Shapiro ahead 55% to 39%.

The survey found 33% of voters still haven't heard of Garrity, while Shapiro's job approval stands at 61%. The economy and inflation remain voters' top concerns, though data centers and AI development have emerged as a notable issue, with 64% opposed to new data center construction and 39% favoring an outright ban. On that issue, 57% of voters said Shapiro would handle data centers and AI companies better, versus 31% for Garrity, even as both candidates have accused each other of shifting positions on the topic.

Pennsylvania Democrats see an opportunity this November to flip control of the U.S. House and the state Senate, with Gov. Josh Shapiro leading the ticket as he seeks reelection against Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity. Recent polling shows Shapiro with a substantial lead, and a strong win could bolster speculation about a 2028 presidential run. Garrity, endorsed by President Trump, faces a significant fundraising gap and lower name recognition.

Both parties are targeting four eastern Pennsylvania U.S. House districts held by Republican incumbents Brian Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan, and Scott Perry, each facing well-funded Democratic challengers amid discontent with Trump. Democrats also see a longer-shot opportunity in a fifth district held by Dan Meuser. In Harrisburg, Democrats need a net gain of two state Senate seats plus the governorship to seize a legislative trifecta and advance priorities like abortion protections, minimum wage increases, and transit funding. Election Day is Nov. 3, with an Oct. 19 voter registration deadline.

A new poll from The New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena University finds Sen. John Fetterman, a Democrat, is significantly more popular among Pennsylvania Republicans than the state's GOP senator, Dave McCormick. Fetterman is viewed favorably by 79% of Republicans but just 20% of Democrats, while McCormick draws 66% approval from Republicans and only 18% from Democrats. Fetterman's overall favorability among all voters sits at 46%, down slightly from 48% in 2024.

The findings come amid speculation—which Fetterman has repeatedly denied—that he could switch parties, fueled partly by his joint fundraising committee with McCormick. Fetterman has broken from progressive Democrats on Israel policy and some border enforcement measures, drawing criticism from within his party; about half of Democrats say he's too supportive of Israel, and two-thirds say he backs President Trump too much. Fetterman has not said whether he will seek reelection in 2028, and the poll suggests he faces an uphill battle winning back Democratic support.