RealClearPolitics

Michigan's open Senate race is ending in turmoil for Democrats after Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost the primary to nominee Abdul el Sayed, endorsed Republican candidate Mike Rogers. Party leaders including Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer denounced the move, and the Michigan Democratic Party disavowed Stevens. The split overshadowed a final New York Times/Siena poll showing el Sayed with his largest lead of the campaign, far above other recent surveys, prompting the Times's own polling analyst to question whether the result reflected a real Democratic surge or partisan nonresponse bias. The primary was earlier disrupted by a fabricated poll from a fake firm that pushed candidate Mallory McMorrow out of the race.

Michigan's Senate race closed with turmoil inside the Democratic Party after Rep. Haley Stevens, defeated by nominee Abdul el Sayed in the August primary, endorsed Republican Mike Rogers. Democratic leaders including Hakeem Jeffries, Chuck Schumer and state party chair Curtis Hertel denounced the move, and Stevens faced sharp questioning in media appearances.

The endorsement came as a New York Times/Siena poll showed el Sayed opening his largest lead of the race, well above other recent surveys, prompting the Times' own analysts to question whether nonresponse bias was inflating Democratic numbers. The race also follows an earlier fake-poll episode that helped push candidate Mallory McMorrow out of the primary.

Texas Attorney General and GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton has been caught on leaked audio complaining that Washington operatives and party leaders, rather than himself, are controlling his campaign's messaging. "I've never been in a race where I felt less control," Paxton said at a fundraiser, adding frustration that decisions were coming "from DC." His campaign says he was referring to super PACs, which cannot legally coordinate with campaigns but have spent heavily on his behalf. A separate leaked recording had Paxton acknowledging his numbers dropped after a Trump-headlined GOP convention in Dallas.

The disclosures add to visible strain within Texas Republican ranks ahead of the November 3 election against Democrat James Talarico, with Senator John Cornyn among those reluctant to fully rally behind Paxton. Angela Paxton, the AG's estranged wife who filed for divorce in July 2025 citing adultery, has released a PAC-funded ad urging Republicans to back the full GOP ticket regardless of individual candidates. Polling shows Talarico with a narrow lead, and Republicans have poured tens of millions of dollars into defending the seat.

Democrat Sherrod Brown released a viral 30-second ad attacking Republican Sen. Jon Husted over remarks Husted made in March about people living in poverty. The ad features Ohio residents reacting with shock and profanity as they watch a clip of Husted saying poor people are "not very experienced at navigating the real world" and describing a young woman on food stamps who he said didn't "understand how money works at a grocery store," adding that "you literally have to teach people how to budget." It drew over 350,000 views within hours, praised by Brown supporters as exposing Husted as out of touch while drawing backlash from the right.

The ad comes as two new polls, from Suffolk University/USA Today and Marist, show Brown leading Husted by three and eight points respectively ahead of Ohio's Nov. 3 special Senate election to finish JD Vance's term. Both surveys found broad dissatisfaction with President Trump's job performance and economic concerns weighing on voters, continuing a months-long trend of polling favoring Brown, a former longtime senator ousted in 2024.

Former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown is running a long-shot campaign for the New Hampshire Republican Senate nomination against John E. Sununu, son of former governor John H. Sununu, who has consolidated establishment support including an endorsement from President Trump. Sununu entered the race after his more popular brother, former governor Chris Sununu, declined to run.

Polling shows Sununu with a commanding lead: a University of New Hampshire survey of likely Republican voters put his favorability far ahead of Brown's, with Brown also carrying notably higher unfavorability numbers. RealClearPolitics' polling average shows Sununu leading by a wide margin, and outlets like The Cook Political Report treat Sununu as the de facto nominee against expected Democratic candidate Representative Chris Pappas. Brown, a Trump-appointed former ambassador to New Zealand and the 2010 winner of Ted Kennedy's former Senate seat, argues that "New Hampshire breaks late" and says he remains confident despite the deficit. The primary outcome will determine who faces Pappas in the general election.