Ryan Fazio

A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey shows Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont (D) leading Republican challenger Ryan Fazio by nearly 14 points, 51.4 percent to 37.8 percent, with 10.8 percent of voters undecided. The poll surveyed 800 likely Connecticut voters from Oct. 10-12 and carries a 3.5-point margin of error.

Lamont's commanding lead reflects a broader favorable climate for Democrats heading into the midterms, as Republicans contend with political headwinds tied to an unpopular war in Iran, rising cost-of-living concerns, and President Trump's weakening approval numbers. The same poll found 62.3 percent disapproved of Trump's job performance versus 30 percent approving. Connecticut remains a reliably blue state, and nonpartisan handicapper Cook Political Report rates the governor's race as solidly Democratic, leaving Fazio with a steep climb to close the gap before Election Day.

Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont and Republican challenger Ryan Fazio remain at odds on nearly every major issue as the November election nears, including whether the race itself is close. Fazio claims internal polling shows a single-digit contest, but Lamont denied this, saying "he's making that up." Public polls from Quinnipiac University and Sacred Heart University show Lamont leading by double digits, and Morning Consult ranked him among the most popular governors nationally.

The candidates also clash on affordable housing, with Fazio pushing to scale back the state's 8-30g zoning law and Lamont favoring increased housing supply. On the economy, Fazio criticizes state spending growth and proposes income tax and electric bill cuts, while Lamont points to balanced budgets and reduced public benefits charges. Both spar over disgraced former state official Kosta Diamantis, convicted of corruption and now a fugitive in Greece. The candidates also disagree on debate scheduling, with only two debates set for late October, and each is spending heavily on advertising ahead of the vote.

Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont and Republican challenger Ryan Fazio are escalating a television ad war centered on health care affordability with about 50 days left before the November election. Lamont's new ad, featuring a Bridgeport nurse, blames Fazio and Republicans in Congress for supporting the expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies, which Lamont says raised premiums by roughly $800 a month for many residents. Connecticut responded by creating a state-funded relief program covering more than 150,000 residents affected by the subsidy cuts, a step few other states have taken.

Fazio counters that Lamont has failed on affordability during his eight years in office, citing double-digit premium rate increases approved under his administration and data showing Connecticut premiums running well above the national average. Fazio says he will soon release his own health care reform plan emphasizing competition and choice. Both campaigns are spending heavily on ads, with Fazio drawing on public financing and Lamont self-funding. Lamont currently holds a double-digit lead in polling, though Fazio disputes the survey's methodology and says the race is closer than reported.