University of California, Berkeley

California's carbon market, the cap-and-invest program created under AB 32, underwent major changes this year. A contentious reauthorization is projected to roughly halve annual auction revenue while opening billions in free permits for polluters investing in decarbonization. Gov. Gavin Newsom also announced plans to link the state's market with Washington's and eventually Quebec's, expected to raise credit prices and take effect next year. Critics say the changes push California's 2030 and 2045 emissions targets further out of reach, while regulators and some economists call the program still functional. The next governor will appoint air board members, oversee linkage rulemaking, and shape climate policy; neither gubernatorial candidate has made it a campaign focus.

Gov. Gavin Newsom has signed a batch of housing bills aimed at speeding up residential construction, though most are expected to have a modest effect in San Diego, often considered an easier place to build than other parts of California. Among the changes: lower impact fees for accessory dwelling units (ADUs) over 750 square feet (SB 1117); narrower rules easing construction of for-sale townhouses on vacant single-family lots (SB 1116, AB 1751); a requirement for large cities like San Diego to designate high-density "transit-hub districts" allowing taller buildings near transit (AB 2074); and a mandate for cities to provide upfront, non-binding infrastructure fee estimates to developers (SB 1014).

The most consequential local legislation, SB 344 and SB 958, clears environmental and height-related legal hurdles for the Midway Rising megaproject, which could break ground next year. Plans include a 16,000-seat arena and 4,254 apartments — a regional record — with roughly 2,000 designated as subsidized housing, far surpassing the county's current largest affordable complex.

Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton met Wednesday, Sept. 30, in what is expected to be their only one-on-one debate before the Nov. 3 general election to succeed term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom. CNN hosted the hour-long, prime-time debate in Los Angeles, with Jake Tapper and Dana Bash moderating.

The two clashed over the state's direction, with cost of living emerging as the top issue for voters. Becerra, a former congressman, state attorney general and Biden administration health secretary, pitched himself as the experienced choice, while Hilton, a Trump-endorsed former Fox News host, blamed Democratic leadership for California's high costs.

Polls show Becerra leading by wide margins, reflecting the state's heavily Democratic voter registration. The debate is seen as low-risk for Becerra but a make-or-break moment for Hilton, whose embrace of Trump's endorsement remains a liability with California voters. Becerra faces scrutiny over housing costs and unresolved homelessness under Democratic governance. No Republican has won the governorship since Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Hilton faces a steep climb in a state that hasn't elected one in 20 years.

A new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, finds Trump's approval among California Republicans has fallen to 76%, down from 83% last year, with only 44% saying they "strongly" support his performance, down from 57% in August 2025. Pollster Mark DiCamillo said the softer numbers could reduce Republican turnout in the state's few competitive congressional races, while UC Berkeley's G. Cristina Mora suggested Trump's efforts to nationalize the midterms could instead galvanize Democratic voters.

The decline comes as California's redrawn congressional map, approved by voters last year at Gov. Gavin Newsom's urging, leaves Republicans with just four safe seats out of 52. Cook Political Report rates only one true toss-up: the 22nd District held by Rep. David Valadao, who faces progressive Democrat Randy Villegas. Two other GOP-held or contested seats, the 48th and 13th Districts, lean Democratic. The poll also found 70% of California voters disapprove of Trump's Iran policy and believe his immigration approach hurts the state's economy, including roughly one in five Republicans on each measure.

California voters will decide in November on Proposition 40, a proposed one-time 5% tax on the net worth of the state's roughly 250 billionaires. Supporters estimate the measure could raise about $100 billion, with 90% directed to healthcare and the rest split between food assistance and education. Backers argue the funds are urgently needed as federal budget cuts under the Trump administration have already stripped Medi-Cal coverage from more than 200,000 Los Angeles County residents, with researchers warning losses could exceed 1 million statewide by 2028. Advocates, including six Nobel-winning economists, say California billionaires' combined wealth has grown from $700 billion to roughly $2.3 trillion in a decade and that they can afford the tax.

Opponents, including Governor Gavin Newsom, argue such taxation should happen at the federal level and warn of legal and administrative challenges, with rival measures already placed on the ballot. Critics call the proposal's design complex, and a court challenge is considered likely if it passes. The measure's fate could set a precedent for other states weighing wealth taxes.

Healthcare affordability has emerged as a central issue in California's governor's race, but Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton have offered few specifics on cost or funding. Becerra, who calls himself the "healthcare governor," touts his record defending the Affordable Care Act and a major antitrust settlement against Sutter Health as attorney general. He pledges to pursue universal coverage, prioritize primary care, and continue covering Californians affected by federal Medicaid cuts, but has not explained how he would pay for it, even as state officials warn the cuts could cost California up to $30 billion annually.

Hilton's "Working Class Healthcare Guarantee," unveiled last week, calls for price transparency, replacing part of Medi-Cal with health spending accounts, and a reinsurance program to stabilize premiums, though he could not estimate costs or savings. Both candidates support expanding low-cost drug programs. Becerra has raised over $33 million, including substantial healthcare industry donations, and leads polling by a wide margin heading toward their CNN debate.

A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll shows Democratic gubernatorial nominee Xavier Becerra leading Republican Steve Hilton 58% to 33% among likely California voters, up from a 55%-37% edge in May. A separate September Public Policy Institute of California survey similarly put Becerra ahead 60% to 38%. Cost of living, including housing and fuel prices, ranked as voters' top concern. Hilton has downplayed the gap, arguing Californians want change after 16 years of one-party rule and citing campaign momentum.

The consistency of two double-digit leads is notable, but recent election history urges caution about treating September polling as a final verdict ahead of the November 3 vote. Analyses of the last three presidential elections found polls systematically underestimated Republican support relative to Democrats, and 2022 Wisconsin Senate polling swung sharply in the campaign's final weeks. Turnout modeling and late-deciding voters remain wildcards. For now, available data shows Becerra with a substantial advantage, though the race's final outcome is not yet determined.