Fergus Falls, Minnesota

Minnesotans voted Nov. 3 to replace Gov. Tim Walz, who dropped his third-term bid amid fraud scrutiny, with the state set to elect its first woman governor. DFL Sen. Amy Klobuchar, running with Ben Schierer, easily won her primary after entering the race following Walz's exit. Republican House Speaker Lisa Demuth, running with Ryan Wilson, scored a historic primary upset over Trump-endorsed Mike Lindell and party-endorsed Kendall Qualls. Green Party candidate Steven Young also appeared on the ballot. The race drew heavy outside spending and centered on fraud, affordability, healthcare, and housing, with Demuth promising change and Klobuchar tying Demuth to Trump's agenda. Minnesota hasn't elected a Republican governor since 2006.

Minnesota voters went to the polls August 11 in Democratic primaries pitting moderate Rep. Angie Craig against progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for the open Senate seat left by retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Flanagan drew backing from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Ilhan Omar and Smith herself, while Craig secured establishment support from Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, Pete Buttigieg and Gwen Walz, and roughly doubled Flanagan's fundraising. The race centered on Craig's contested vote for the Laken Riley Act, which she has since disavowed, immigration enforcement after federal agents killed two protesters during "Operation Metro Surge," and clashing views on Israel and AIPAC funding. On the Republican side, Michele Tafoya leads a fundraising-heavy field including party-endorsed Adam Schwarze and Royce White, while Amy Klobuchar faces minimal opposition for governor against Republicans Mike Lindell (Trump-endorsed), Lisa Demuth and Kendall Qualls, as the GOP seeks its first statewide win since 2006.

Craig's departure also triggered a six-way Democratic primary for her open 2nd Congressional District seat. The results will help determine whether Democrats lean moderate or progressive heading into the midterms and test Republican hopes of ending their statewide losing streak. Prediction markets, which favored Flanagan and Craig-adjacent dynamics entering Election Day, are watching outcomes as an early signal for the broader 2026 fight over Congress and Minnesota's state government.