Bucks County, Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania has become a focal point in the battle for the U.S. House, with four GOP-held seats — held by Reps. Scott Perry, Brian Fitzpatrick, Rob Bresnahan and Ryan Mackenzie — rated as toss-ups or lean Democrat by nonpartisan forecasters. Democrats need a net gain of three seats nationally to retake the majority, and party leaders say the state is central to that path. Trump held a tele-rally for several Pennsylvania Republicans but notably skipped Fitzpatrick, a centrist who has broken with the party on key votes. Democrats, scarred by a narrow 2024 shortfall, say enthusiasm and turnout look stronger this cycle, though challengers are cautious about overconfidence heading into Tuesday's vote.

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a Pennsylvania Republican running for reelection in the 1st Congressional District, touted an endorsement from American Unity Fund last week, sharing a photo of himself with a rainbow-colored sign and pledging to "defend and protect the rights, dignity, and freedom of every American." At the same time, the National Republican Congressional Committee's attack website targeting his Democratic challenger, Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie, features Pride-related photos among materials aimed at discrediting him, including a video claiming he misused opioid settlement funds for "trans sex parties for kids."

Harvie called on Fitzpatrick to denounce the tactics and remove the website, arguing the congressman's independence is undermined by ties to Donald Trump, Mike Johnson, and Washington Republicans. American Unity Fund, despite backing Fitzpatrick's support for nondiscrimination protections, opposes gender-affirming care for minors and backed a Supreme Court challenge to a state conversion-therapy ban. Fitzpatrick did break with his party earlier this year by voting against criminalizing such care. LGBTQ+ advocate Liz Bradbury said moderate Republicans like Fitzpatrick still help sustain a leadership hostile to broader LGBTQ+ rights. Neither Fitzpatrick, the NRCC, nor American Unity Fund responded to requests for comment.

Pennsylvania Democrats see an opportunity this November to flip control of the U.S. House and the state Senate, with Gov. Josh Shapiro leading the ticket as he seeks reelection against Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity. Recent polling shows Shapiro with a substantial lead, and a strong win could bolster speculation about a 2028 presidential run. Garrity, endorsed by President Trump, faces a significant fundraising gap and lower name recognition.

Both parties are targeting four eastern Pennsylvania U.S. House districts held by Republican incumbents Brian Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan, and Scott Perry, each facing well-funded Democratic challengers amid discontent with Trump. Democrats also see a longer-shot opportunity in a fifth district held by Dan Meuser. In Harrisburg, Democrats need a net gain of two state Senate seats plus the governorship to seize a legislative trifecta and advance priorities like abortion protections, minimum wage increases, and transit funding. Election Day is Nov. 3, with an Oct. 19 voter registration deadline.

Gov. Josh Shapiro says his executive order gives Pennsylvania "the strictest guardrails in the nation" for data center development, though that claim holds mainly if outright moratoriums elsewhere are excluded. Signed Tuesday, the order requires developers to sign a binding consent agreement covering energy generation, water use, workforce hiring, transparency and community benefits before receiving state permits; projects that refuse face indefinite delays. It marks a reversal from Shapiro's earlier courting of investment, including Amazon's $20 billion data center commitment in Bucks and Luzerne counties.

States are diverging sharply in their approach as data centers become politically unpopular over energy costs and local impacts. New York has imposed the country's first statewide moratorium, pending new rules; Texas paused future projects for an audit. New Jersey and Kentucky passed consumer-cost protections via legislation and executive order, respectively, while Maryland and Virginia leave moratorium decisions to local governments. Ohio continues welcoming development but now requires large facilities to pay for most of their electricity capacity. Pennsylvania's legislature has broad support for ending data center tax breaks but has not passed a bill.