Elections
Washington’s 4th District House Race 2026
Washington’s 4th Congressional District, a largely agricultural region spanning the Yakima Valley and central part of the state, will hold its 2026 House election on November 3. The seat has long leaned Republican, built on a base of farming communities, small towns, and a conservative-leaning electorate in central Washington. Candidates from both major parties are expected to compete for the right to represent the district in Congress.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House often comes down to a handful of competitive districts, and WA-04’s outcome will factor into the national balance of power. The district’s agricultural economy, water and land-use issues, and rural-urban divide make it a bellwether for how central Washington voters respond to national political trends heading into the midterms.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate contest to a binary question: will the Republican or Democratic nominee win WA-04? That framing isolates partisan control as the sole variable, stripping out local personalities, turnout quirks, and primary dynamics. Traders are effectively weighing whether an historically safe Republican district holds steady or shows any drift amid broader midterm shifts.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States House of Representatives -
Washington's 4th congressional district -
Yakima Valley AVA -
Central Washington
Total Volume
$117.3k
Kalshi $38.2k · Polymarket $79.1k
Leading Market
Amanda McKinney
Kalshi 90% · Polymarket 91%
Amanda McKinney Volume
$81.1k
Kalshi $28.4k · Polymarket $52.7k
Amanda McKinney 24h Change
+0.30%
Kalshi +0.30% · Polymarket 0.00%
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Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda McKinneyRepublican Party | 90.3¢ | 7.0% | , trade Amanda McKinney on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 91.0¢ | 5% | , trade Amanda McKinney on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| John DureskyDemocratic Party | 8.9¢ | 7.0% | , trade John Duresky on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 9.0¢ | 5% | , trade John Duresky on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda McKinneyRepublican Party | $81,133.83 | ||
| John DureskyDemocratic Party | $36,127.67 |