Texas’s 11th Congressional District: Who Will Win the 2026 House Race
Texas’s 11th Congressional District, anchored in Midland, Odessa, and San Angelo in West Texas, will elect a member of the U.S. House in November 2026. The district is one of the most heavily Republican in the country, shaped by the oil and gas economy of the Permian Basin and rural conservative politics. The seat is currently held by a Republican incumbent, and the race will determine who represents the district for the next two-year term.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House often comes down to margins in individual districts, even in seats considered safe for one party. A result here reflects how national trends, energy-sector sentiment, and rural voter turnout intersect in a reliably red stretch of Texas. Any shift in the margin could signal broader patterns heading into the midterm cycle.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate general election down to a binary question: which party secures the seat. Traders are effectively weighing how durable the district’s partisan lean is against any localized factors that could narrow the race. Because the seat rarely sees genuine competition, the market also captures expectations about turnout and candidate strength rather than a true toss-up dynamic.
Related terms
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Republican Party (United States) -
Midland, Texas -
West Texas -
San Angelo, Texas -
Permian Basin (North America) -
August Pfluger -
Texas's 11th congressional district -
Odessa, Texas
Total Volume
$46.5k
Kalshi $4.2k · Polymarket $42.3k
Leading Market
August Pfluger
Kalshi 96% · Polymarket 96%
August Pfluger Volume
$19.5k
Kalshi $1k · Polymarket $18.5k
August Pfluger 24h Change
+2.00%
Kalshi -0.90% · Polymarket +2.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August PflugerRepublican Party | 96.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade August Pfluger on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 97.0¢ | 5% | , trade August Pfluger on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Melissa Clark-ReynoldsDemocratic Party | 4.9¢ | 7.0% | , trade Melissa Clark-Reynolds on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade Melissa Clark-Reynolds on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| August PflugerRepublican Party | $19,484.83 | ||
| Melissa Clark-ReynoldsDemocratic Party | $27,047.40 |