Mississippi’s 4th District House Race: Who Will Win?
Mississippi’s 4th Congressional District, anchored along the Gulf Coast and historically one of the most reliably Republican seats in the country, is up for election in 2026. Voters will choose their U.S. House representative, with the outcome determining who represents the district in Washington for the next term.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of narrowly divided House seats like this one can shape the balance of power in Congress and influence which party sets the legislative agenda. A clear result here also offers an early read on voter sentiment in a historically conservative Gulf Coast district ahead of broader national midterm trends.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question is binary: which party ultimately holds the seat once votes are certified. Traders are effectively weighing the durability of the district’s partisan lean against any localized shifts in turnout or candidate strength. Separate contracts tied to individual candidates let participants isolate specific primary or runoff scenarios rather than just the general partisan outcome.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States Congress -
Mississippi -
Mississippi Gulf Coast -
Jeffrey Hulum III -
Mike Ezell
Total Volume
$61.3k
Kalshi $11.1k · Polymarket $50.3k
Leading Market
Mike Ezell
Kalshi 96% · Polymarket 97%
Mike Ezell Volume
$33.2k
Kalshi $9.7k · Polymarket $23.6k
Mike Ezell 24h Change
-2.00%
Kalshi 0.00% · Polymarket -2.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike EzellRepublican Party | 97.2¢ | 7.0% | , trade Mike Ezell on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 97.0¢ | 5% | , trade Mike Ezell on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Jeffrey Hulum IIIDemocratic Party | 4.4¢ | 7.0% | , trade Jeffrey Hulum III on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade Jeffrey Hulum III on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike EzellRepublican Party | $33,211.83 | ||
| Jeffrey Hulum IIIDemocratic Party | $28,106.44 |