Louisiana’s 4th District House Race: Who Will Win?

U.S. Rep. Troy Carter, D-La., is heavily favored to win a third full term representing his New Orleans-to-Baton Rouge district on Nov. 3, facing token opposition from four little-funded challengers, including Republican Peter Williams. Carter, who is running unopposed to become the next chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, says the post will position him prominently ahead of the next presidential race, arguing "all roads to the White House will go through the South." He criticized House Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise, both Louisiana Republicans, for backing Trump-era Medicaid cuts he says will hurt their own constituents. Carter expects Democrats to retake the House majority, giving him a larger platform to push back on Medicaid cuts and ICE enforcement tactics.

Louisiana's open primary election takes place Tuesday, Nov. 3, with early voting held Oct. 20-27. The ballot features a crowded U.S. Senate race to replace Rep. Julia Letlow, who is stepping down after President Trump's endorsement, pitting her against Democrat Jamie Davis. Several U.S. House races are also at stake, including incumbents Steve Scalise, Troy Carter, and Clay Higgins, plus a wide-open contest for Letlow's 5th District seat and the newly redrawn, majority-white 6th District vacated by Cleo Fields.

Down-ballot contests include the influential Public Service Commissioner District 1 seat, St. Tammany Parish sheriff (following ex-Sheriff Randy Smith's guilty plea in an assault case), Plaquemines Parish president, and Bogalusa mayor, where incumbent Tyrin Truong faces criminal charges. Races without a majority winner will proceed to a December runoff, a likely outcome in several multi-candidate congressional and local contests.

Final pre-election FEC filings show wide fundraising disparities among Louisiana's congressional candidates. In the 6th District, Republican Blake Miguez leads with $7.6 million raised, far outpacing rival Rick Edmonds and other challengers, though polling suggests the race remains unsettled. In the open 5th District, state Rep. Michael Echols leads fundraising, bolstered by a large personal loan, ahead of Misti Cordell, Gabe Firment, and Stewart Cathey Jr. In the Senate race, GOP Rep. Julia Letlow, endorsed by President Trump, has outraised Democrat Jamie Davis $6.8 million to $4 million. Incumbents Mike Johnson, Steve Scalise, Troy Carter, and Clay Higgins retain major cash advantages over challengers as early voting continues toward the November 3 election.

Louisiana heads into Nov. 3 elections for one U.S. Senate seat and several House seats under unusual circumstances. The U.S. Supreme Court's June 29 ruling in Callais v. Louisiana, which found the state's 6th Congressional District unconstitutionally gerrymandered, forced Gov. Jeff Landry to order a new open primary even after some ballots had already been cast, confusing voters about district lines. The Senate race to succeed Bill Cassidy, between Rep. Julia Letlow and Democrat Jamie Davis, will be decided outright since a May primary already occurred; Cassidy was eliminated after being targeted by state Republicans over his impeachment vote. House races featuring incumbents are expected to avoid runoffs, but open seats in the 5th and 6th Districts likely head to a December runoff. Early voting has surged, particularly among Black voters.

Club for Growth, a Washington, D.C.-based conservative advocacy group, has launched a million-dollar attack ad against Louisiana state Sen. Rick Edmonds, one of the leading Republican candidates in the race for the open 6th Congressional District seat being vacated by Democratic Rep. Cleo Fields. The ad accuses Edmonds of "lying" and being a "sellout" over his votes on tax-related bills, including a 2024 measure raising the state sales tax while cutting income taxes, and legislation granting tax breaks to Meta for a Louisiana data center. Club for Growth has endorsed Edmonds' chief rival, state Sen. Blake Miguez, even though Miguez voted the same way on two of the three cited bills.

Edmonds says the ad distorts his conservative record and reflects outside interference in Louisiana politics. Analysts note Edmonds has far less campaign cash than Miguez, who loaned his own campaign $3 million, raising concerns about his ability to respond. Polling shows a crowded, largely undecided field ahead of the November 3 jungle primary, with the top two finishers advancing to a December runoff.

Jamie Davis, a 56-year-old farmer from Waterproof, Louisiana, is running as the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate against Republican incumbent Rep. Julia Letlow, who has backing from President Trump and Gov. Jeff Landry. Louisiana is considered solidly Republican and voted 60% for Trump in 2024, but a July Public Policy Polling survey showed Davis trailing Letlow by only four points, with 22% of voters undecided. If elected, Davis would be Louisiana's first Democratic senator since 2014 and its first Black senator since Reconstruction.

Davis, a farm operator and former parish police juror, has built his campaign around affordability, citing rising fuel, insurance and grocery costs. He has also criticized Letlow over a reported nondisclosure agreement with Meta and delayed stock disclosures tied to a Richland Parish data center project. Despite being outraised roughly three-to-one, Davis says his campaign is emphasizing grassroots organizing, with thousands of volunteers and paid organizers, to boost turnout ahead of the election in a race forecasters still favor Republicans to win.

Multiple Louisiana political figures are signaling possible interest in the 2028 presidential race. Former New Orleans Mayor Marc Morial, now head of the National Urban League, told an Oct. 3 panel at the March On! Festival that he is "thinking about running." He appeared alongside former U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu, who encouraged him, and her brother, former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, who has said since April he will decide after the midterms or early next year. U.S. Sen. John Kennedy also raised the possibility on NBC's "Meet the Press," suggesting he could do better than other potential contenders.

None of the three has formed a campaign team, PAC, or fundraising operation, but Kennedy and Landrieu have both published bestselling books and are actively campaigning for allies nationally. Louisiana has never produced a sitting-president nominee with strong local roots; past bids by Buddy Roemer and Bobby Jindal fizzled early. The 2028 field remains wide open on both sides, with JD Vance, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz atop GOP speculation, and Democrats awaiting word from Kamala Harris.

St. Tammany Parish voters head to the polls Nov. 3 to elect a new sheriff for the first time in over 30 years without Jack Strain or Randy Smith on the ballot, filling the remaining 18 months of Smith's term after his resignation and guilty plea to second-degree battery. Interim Sheriff Bret Ibert will retire once a successor is sworn in this January. Four candidates are running: former Louisiana State Police Superintendent Robert Hodges, retired U.S. Marshal Scott Illing, retired bomb-squad commander David Maki, and former Slidell Police interim chief Daniel Seuzeneau. Each emphasizes transparency, staff morale, and budget fixes. Without a majority winner, a runoff follows Dec. 12.

Denham Springs City Court Judge Jerry Denton Jr., a Republican, is running for reelection in the Nov. 3 election, with early voting set for Oct. 20-27. Denton, a former homicide detective, worked as a special prosecutor for the East Baton Rouge Parish District Attorney's Office and later served as Assistant Attorney General Special Legal Counsel and Director of the Louisiana Attorney General's White Collar Public Corruption Section. He is licensed to practice before the U.S. Supreme Court.

Before becoming judge, Denton served as Denham Springs marshal from 2009 to 2016, earning Law Enforcement Officer of the Year honors, and as a city council member from 2006 to 2009, when he helped bring Bass Pro Shops to Denham Springs and worked on a new wastewater treatment plant. He has held leadership roles in Livingston Parish's Republican Party organizations and numerous legal and civic associations.

Gov. Gavin Newsom has signed Assembly Bill 2599, the Truth in Disclosure Act, making California the first state to require large companies to disclose whether they or their corporate predecessors profited from chattel slavery. Authored by Assemblymember Isaac Bryan and backed by the California Legislative Black Caucus, the law applies to companies with more than $100 million in annual worldwide gross receipts that existed, or had a predecessor that existed, on or before December 1964. Sworn disclosures, subject to perjury penalties, must be filed by January 15, 2029, and will be posted in a searchable public database maintained by the state's Civil Rights Department.

Supporters say the measure, likely to affect banks, insurers, and agricultural firms, will help researchers and advocates trace links between modern corporate wealth and the slave economy. Some insurers opposed the bill, citing an existing 2000 disclosure law. The measure follows California's 2023 reparations task force report, which recommended over 100 remedies and estimated hundreds of billions owed to Black residents, though broader reparations legislation has stalled.