Idaho’s 1st Congressional District: 2026 House Race
Idaho’s 1st Congressional District heads to the polls in November 2026 to elect its U.S. House representative. The seat covers the western and northern portions of the state, including Boise’s suburbs and the Idaho Panhandle. Idaho’s 1st has leaned solidly Republican in recent cycles, but every midterm brings fresh questions about turnout and candidate strength.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House hinges on dozens of races like this one, where incumbency, redistricting, and national political mood all intersect. A Republican-held district shifting in either direction would signal broader momentum heading into the midterms. Local turnout patterns here also offer an early read on rural and suburban voter enthusiasm across the Mountain West.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question traders are weighing is binary: does the Republican or Democratic candidate win the seat. Given the district’s historical lean, the market effectively measures how much, if any, ground Democrats can claim in a traditionally safe seat. Shifts in sentiment here can serve as a proxy for broader expectations about House control nationally.
Related terms
Total Volume
$50.5k
Kalshi $2k · Polymarket $48.5k
Leading Market
Russ Fulcher
Kalshi 98% · Polymarket 99%
Russ Fulcher Volume
$40.4k
Kalshi $1.4k · Polymarket $39k
Russ Fulcher 24h Change
-1.00%
Kalshi 0.00% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russ FulcherRepublican Party | 98.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Russ Fulcher on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Russ Fulcher on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Kyle PetersonDemocratic Party | 4.7¢ | 7.0% | , trade Kyle Peterson on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade Kyle Peterson on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russ FulcherRepublican Party | $40,435.53 | ||
| Kyle PetersonDemocratic Party | $10,040.70 |