Rare-earth element

Chinese President Xi Jinping heads into his summit with President Donald Trump holding significant leverage over rare earths, a dependency that has defined U.S.-China trade tensions since April 2025, when tariffs and retaliatory Chinese export restrictions led to a one-year truce set to expire in November. U.S. officials, including Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, say China's rare-earth export compliance has been inconsistent, and shipments of rare-earth magnets to the U.S. dropped again in August.

Analysts expect both sides to favor extending the truce rather than escalating, with Greer signaling openness to a three-to-six-month extension. But experts say China's dominance of rare-earth mining, separation, and magnet production is likely to persist until at least 2030, and U.S. efforts to diversify supply chains face structural setbacks since even allied producers like Japan depend on Chinese inputs. The stakes extend to defense: the Iran war strained U.S. munitions stockpiles reliant on critical minerals, and Washington has ordered contractors to stop sourcing rare earths from China by January 1, a deadline some firms may struggle to meet.