Prediction market

Democrat Amy Acton defeated Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio's governor's race, becoming the state's first woman governor and the first Democrat elected to the office in 20 years. The Associated Press called the contest for Acton and running mate David Pepper on election night, with final results showing Acton winning roughly 52% of the vote to Ramaswamy's 44%, a margin of more than 364,000 votes. The race drew record spending and turned contentious late when Ramaswamy aired an ad featuring Acton's estranged mother, drawing bipartisan criticism, including from Republican Governor Mike DeWine. Ramaswamy conceded. Democrats also broke the GOP's veto-proof supermajority in the Ohio House, giving Acton more leverage with the legislature than expected.

Acton's win confirms what prediction markets had signaled for weeks, as she remained the heavy favorite for governor heading into Election Day.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton toured the Youngstown Business Incubator and rallied in Liberty, stressing ties to Mahoning and Trumbull counties ahead of Election Day against Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. Acton has repeatedly addressed a Ramaswamy-backed ad featuring her estranged mother, calling her a liar and alleging mental health issues; Gov. Mike DeWine called it exploitative. Both candidates are closing with pitches on Ohio's affordability crisis, with Ramaswamy touting his business background and property-tax executive orders, and Acton emphasizing public-service experience, a working families tax cut, and school funding.

Ramaswamy has self-funded and outspent Acton nearly $80 million to $34 million overall, though Acton has outraised him recently; both have shattered Ohio's gubernatorial fundraising record, and neither has held elected office before. Democrats are banking on a late push, including a Cleveland rally with Barack Obama and expanded early voting, as prediction markets show Acton favored heading into Election Day.

Ahead of Ohio's U.S. Senate and governor races, prediction market activity has drawn scrutiny from political scientists and state lawmakers who argue betting on elections undermines public trust in democracy. Ohio State professor Nathaniel Swigger warns that large discrepancies between market-implied odds and public polling in the governor's race between Amy Acton and Vivek Ramaswamy could fuel doubts about vote legitimacy if outcomes diverge from market expectations.

State Sen. Bill DeMora has introduced legislation to ban election wagering through prediction markets, noting most states already prohibit it. Kalshi, which bars politicians from trading and recently added transparency features, remains in a legal dispute with Ohio over state regulatory authority, while its advocacy arm defends prediction markets as more accurate than polling.

Utah Attorney General Derek Brown filed criminal charges against prediction market platform Kalshi and co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, alleging illegal promotion of online gambling, including a pattern of unlawful activity felony and multiple felony and misdemeanor counts. Charging documents cite an undercover agent placing sports bets on the platform in September, after a federal judge ruled in August that federal law did not bar Utah from enforcing its gambling statutes against Kalshi.

The move follows Brown's earlier civil lawsuit and comes a day after the CFTC sued to block Utah's enforcement. Kalshi called the charges political overreach and vowed to fight them, as it did successfully in Arizona, the only other state to bring a criminal case.

Ohio state Sen. Bill DeMora (D-Columbus) has introduced Senate Bill 479 to prohibit gambling on elections, a measure that would extend to prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The bill follows a 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruling that Ohio can regulate prediction markets under state gambling law, a decision Kalshi is appealing. DeMora cited election-security concerns, noting large sums already wagered on Ohio's governor and Senate races, and argued unregulated prediction markets avoid taxes and licensing fees paid by sports betting operators. The bill awaits committee assignment and is unlikely to advance before the legislature returns from break in November.

Prediction markets including Kalshi, Polymarket and PredictIt have favored Democrats Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown over Republicans Vivek Ramaswamy and Jon Husted in Ohio's governor and Senate races, giving each Democrat roughly 60-72% implied odds, while polling averages show both races as closer toss-ups. A Vanderbilt University study of 2,170 political contracts from the 2024 campaign found markets favored eventual winners 86.4% of the time, though most of that accuracy came from lopsided, already-likely outcomes. For closer contracts priced near 50-50, markets picked correctly only about 55% of the time. The study found markets generally well-calibrated, with slight evidence longshots were overpriced, but cautioned the results don't guarantee similar accuracy for Ohio's 2026 races.

Ahead of the Nov. 3 election, Democratic candidates hold a modest edge in recent public polling for Ohio's U.S. Senate and governor's races, and prediction markets including Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt show them similarly favored. News outlets are tracking these markets alongside polling as part of growing interest in their use for forecasting election outcomes.

Prediction markets are also drawing regulatory attention in Ohio: Attorney General Andy Wilson is leading a 39-state coalition asking the U.S. Supreme Court to clarify whether sports-related prediction markets should be regulated as state sports betting or as federally regulated financial contracts. A federal appeals panel recently backed Ohio regulators seeking to fine Kalshi $5 million for operating as an unlicensed sportsbook, though other courts have ruled in favor of prediction-market operators.

Other developments in the race include Sen. Bernie Moreno's FCC complaint against ABC News over a corrected story involving defense contractor Anduril, questions about a pro-Greg Levy ad possibly tied to Republicans, and Sherrod Brown ruling out support for impeaching President Trump if elected.