Siena University (New York)

A Fox News poll conducted Aug. 6-10 shows former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) leading Sen. Jon Husted (R) 53% to 45% in Ohio's U.S. Senate race, matching the same eight-point margin Fox found in late May/early June. However, other surveys and polling averages show a far tighter contest: RealClearPolling's aggregate has Brown at 47.8% and Husted at 47.2%, an AARP poll in June had Brown up just three points, and a New York Times/Siena poll had Husted ahead by three.

Analysts note methodological differences—such as registered versus likely voters—help explain the variation, and caution against treating any single poll as predictive. The Fox survey found inflation and financial strain as top voter concerns, with Brown leading heavily among those who feel they're falling behind financially. Concerns that Husted is too closely aligned with President Trump have risen since June. The same poll showed Republican Vivek Ramaswamy edging Democrat Amy Acton in the governor's race. Husted, appointed after J.D. Vance became vice president, faces Brown on Nov. 3 to serve the remainder of Vance's term.