Oldham

A unanimous three-judge panel of the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld Texas's 2021 election law requiring mail-in voters to provide an ID or Social Security number, reversing a lower court injunction sought by voting and disability rights groups. Writing for the panel, Judge Andrew Oldham said most plaintiffs lacked standing and criticized the district court for repeatedly obstructing the law, while declaring that "mail-in ballots are prone to fraud" and that mail voting "jeopardizes election integrity and democracy itself." The court found none of the named voters faced a "substantial risk" of disenfranchisement, noting they had since learned to comply. The law, Senate Bill 1, also requires those assisting mail voters to disclose compensation and sign anti-coercion oaths. Attorney General Ken Paxton, now running for U.S. Senate, hailed the ruling as a win for election integrity.

The decision arrives amid a broader national push by Trump and congressional Republicans for stricter voter ID and citizenship-verification rules, which Democrats oppose as voter suppression. Prediction markets are watching how this ruling and related litigation shape the odds of federal voter ID legislation and further court challenges before the 2026 midterms.