Texas’s 22nd Congressional District House Race 2026
Texas’s 22nd Congressional District, covering suburban areas south of Houston including Fort Bend and Brazoria counties, will hold its House election on November 3, 2026. The seat is currently held by Republican Troy Nehls, and the district has trended competitive as the Houston suburbs continue to diversify demographically and politically. Redistricting changes in recent cycles have kept the seat a recurring battleground.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House hinges on a handful of competitive suburban districts like TX-22, where shifting demographics and turnout patterns can swing results. The outcome will shape which party sets the legislative agenda, controls committee chairs, and influences the final two years of the current presidential term. Local economic conditions in the Houston metro area and national political trends will both weigh heavily on voters.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The market reduces a multifaceted campaign to a binary question: which party’s nominee wins the general election. This isolates partisan control of the seat from the noise of primary contests, fundraising totals, or individual candidate missteps. Traders are effectively weighing district-level partisan lean against broader national midterm dynamics likely to shape turnout in suburban Texas.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
Redistricting -
Fort Bend County, Texas -
Brazoria County, Texas -
Greater Houston -
Troy Nehls -
Texas's 22nd congressional district
Total Volume
$20.1k
Kalshi $5.5k · Polymarket $14.6k
Leading Market
Trevor Nelson
Kalshi 95% · Polymarket 96%
Trevor Nelson Volume
$8.1k
Kalshi $4.4k · Polymarket $3.7k
Trevor Nelson 24h Change
-1.00%
Kalshi -0.70% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor NelsonRepublican Party | 94.8¢ | 7.0% | , trade Trevor Nelson on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 96.0¢ | 5% | , trade Trevor Nelson on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Marquette Greene-ScottDemocratic Party | 6.7¢ | 7.0% | , trade Marquette Greene-Scott on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 5.0¢ | 5% | , trade Marquette Greene-Scott on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor NelsonRepublican Party | $8,087.61 | ||
| Marquette Greene-ScottDemocratic Party | $12,035.75 |