Elections
2026 Midterms: Which Party Controls Congress
Voters head to the polls in November 2026 to elect all 435 House seats and roughly a third of the Senate. Control of both chambers is up for grabs, with Republicans currently holding narrow majorities in each. The outcome will determine which party sets the legislative agenda for the second half of the presidential term.
Why Markets Are Watching
Midterm results typically hinge on the sitting president’s approval and economic conditions, and historically favor the party out of power. Whichever combination of House and Senate control emerges will shape everything from judicial confirmations to budget fights and oversight of the executive branch through 2028.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Outcome
The market reduces a sprawling national election into four discrete combinations of Senate and House control. Traders are effectively weighing district-by-district and state-by-state dynamics against broader national trends like presidential approval and generic ballot polling. Because both chambers must align for a single outcome to resolve, the structure isolates how likely a unified versus divided Congress is compared to split control running either direction.
Related terms
Total Volume
$115.1m
Kalshi $76.6m · Polymarket $38.5m
Leading Market
Democrats Sweep
Polymarket 70%
Democrats Sweep Volume
$8.3m
Polymarket $8.3m
Democrats Sweep 24h Change
+6.00%
Polymarket +6.00%
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Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats Sweep | — | — | — | 70.0¢ | 5% | , trade Democrats Sweep on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| D-House, D-SenateDemocrats sweep | 70.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade D-House, D-Senate on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| D-House, R-Senate | 27.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade D-House, R-Senate on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| D House, R Senate | — | — | — | 26.0¢ | 5% | , trade D House, R Senate on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Republicans sweep | 5.6¢ | 7.0% | , trade Republicans sweep on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats Sweep | $8,304,739.87 | No market | |
| D-House, D-SenateDemocrats sweep | $12,952,165.94 | No market | |
| D-House, R-Senate | $10,111,680.61 | No market | |
| D House, R Senate | $5,456,753.06 | No market | |
| Republicans sweep | $29,047,841.53 | No market |