by Cole Woody
Short answer: yes, by a little.
In sports betting, “eating the chalk” means betting on the favorite, and it’s usually a slow way to lose money. In election markets, it has been a slow way to make some.
Sports: Favorites are priced about right
Sports markets settle thousands of games a year, so traders get plenty of practice, and favorites win about as often as their prices suggest. On Polymarket, sports contracts bought at 90 cents or more roughly broke even. Add a sportsbook’s margin, and betting on favorites loses money.
Elections: Favorites are a little cheap
Political markets underprice favorites, especially in the final week. A 2026 study of Kalshi trades found that political contracts priced at 70 cents a week before the outcome won about 83% of the time. On Polymarket, political favorites bought at 90 cents or more returned about 1%.
The likely reasons:
- The answer is mostly in. By the final week, polls, fundraising and early voting have done their work. Elections rarely see a late shock on the scale of a star player’s injury.
- Less practice. Political markets settle far fewer contracts than sports markets do, so mistakes last longer.
- Fans bet on their side. Hopeful money flows to underdogs, which leaves favorites cheap.
The catch
- The edge is small. It’s about 1% for favorites priced at 90 cents or more, and fees above that erase it.
- One loss hurts. At 95 cents, a single upset wipes out the profit from 19 wins.
- Favorites fail together. A national polling miss hits every favorite on the same side at once.
- It can flip on election eve. In the 2026 primaries, markets grew overconfident in favorites during the final days.
This week’s biggest favorites
| Race | Favorite | Kalshi | Polymarket | Profit per $100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky Senate | Andy Barr (R) | 96.8 cents | 98 cents | $3.31 |
| Arkansas Senate | Tom Cotton (R) | 94.8 cents | 96 cents | $5.49 |
| House control | Democrats | 93.9 cents | 93.8 cents | $6.61 |
| Arizona governor | Katie Hobbs (D) | 91.3 cents | 92 cents | $9.53 |
| Minnesota Senate | Peggy Flanagan (D) | 90.8 cents | 91 cents | $10.13 |
| Mississippi Senate | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | 89 cents | 89 cents | $12.36 |
| Montana Senate | Kurt Alme (R) | 89 cents | 88 cents | $13.64 |
| Alaska governor | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) | 87 cents | 87 cents | $14.94 |
| Iowa governor | Rob Sand (D) | 85 cents | 86 cents | $17.65 |
Prices are from The Prediction Network as of Oct. 31. Profit is what a winning $100 position returns at the lower of the two prices, before fees.
The research suggests these favorites should win slightly more often than their prices imply. But most of them depend on the same national environment, so taking several of them is close to making one bet that the polls are right.